Base
oils are at present acquired through two methods: by refining crude
oil or through synthesis of relatively pure compounds. Base oils used
for formulating lubricants are vegetable-based, mineral, or
synthetic. They are classified according to their chemical structure
into naphthenic or paraffinic base oils. The global base oil market
is anticipated to reach 39,614.7 kilo tons by 2020 at a sluggish CAGR
of 1.4% from 2015. The base oil classification system has been
established by The American Petroleum Institute (API). According to
this classification, base oils are segmented into 5 main groups. The
basis of this classification is the percentage of sulfur content,
viscosity index, and saturates.
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Demand
for base oils is driven by some key factors that are expected to
determine the market’s growth trajectory in the years to come.
Population growth and expanding urbanization is likely to lead to
escalation in demand for automobiles. The rapid expansion of the
automotive industry is predicted to increase the need for lubricants
and base oils worldwide. Expansion of the industrial sector in
emerging economies such as Brazil, China, India, and Russia is
anticipated to fuel the demand for base oils in these regions.
Declining
Oil Prices Dictate Pricing Trends
Base
oil revenue is negatively affected by plunging crude oil prices. Due
to the uncertainty of oil prices, base oil prices are estimated to be
unpredictable over the next few years. However, technological
advances based on GTL or gas to liquid technology may provide a
promising opportunity for the base oil market. The GTL refining
process is used for production of high-quality lubricants that have
more efficiency.
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The
growing importance given to fuel economy in new automotive design and
stringent regulations about greenhouse gas emissions will lead to the
use of high-quality lubricants. The need for environmentally friendly
lubricants would result in continuous progression and large-scale
transformation of formulation processes for base oils to match
ecological standards. The diminishing reserves of sweet crude oil in
North America and Europe and sour crude oil’s greater purity and
lower price is compelling refiners to switch to sour crude from sweet
crude oil. All these factors are collectively aiding the global base
oil market’s growth.
Demand
for Group II and Group III Base Oils High from Automotive and
Industrial Segments
Among
the five base oil classification groups, Group 1 base oils had the
major market share in 2014 and are expected to continue the growth
trend over the next few years, though this group is expected to
experience an ebb in demand in Europe and North America.The
preference for superior base oils of Group II and Group III in
industries is expected to drive these segments of base oils.
Currently, Group III is the most preferred base oil for the
manufacture of finished lubricants in the automotive sector
worldwide. In 2014, the automotive oils application segment had the
prime market share in the global base oil market and is anticipated
to continue its dominance over the next few years.
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Elevated
consumption of Group II and Group III base oils has led to new
production plants and capacity extensions being added all over the
world. Group II base oils are expected to be adopted on a large scale
owing to their several performance capabilities over the next few
years.
Key
players in the global base oil market include Royal Dutch Shell plc.,
Exxon Mobile Corporation, Chevron Corporation, and SK Lubricants Co.
Ltd.
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